100) Pesquisas eleitorais e de popularidade

O cientita político David Fleischer, da UnB, resumiu todas as pesquisas de opinião mais recentes em sua newsletter sobre atualidade política brasileira, deste sábado 12 de setembro de 2009
Como se trata de um arquivo em Word, com muitas tabulações, estas estarão inevitavelmente desformatadas, ao transpo-las para esta base de blog em html. Com este pequeno incômodo, transcrevo, ainda assim partes substanciais de seu boletim, e todo o crédito lhe é devido pelo resumo dos relatórios das agências de pesquisa de opinião.

New CNT/Sensus poll
David Flesicher
Brazil Focus, weekly report, 5-11 September 2009

The latest CNT/Sensus poll was conducted between 31st Aug. and 4th Sept. among 2,000 voters in 136 municípios in 24 states with a margin of error at 3%. The previous poll was conducted on 25-29 May/09.

In spite of “economic crisis” and the very bad unemployment data in Dec./08 and Jan./09, Pres. Lula’s approval rating continued to increase in late January 2009 (by 2.7 p.p.). BUT in late March 2009, Lula’s personal approval rating as president declined by 7.8 p.p. This trace had seen a “steady increase” since the “dip” in his rating toward the end of 2005 (following the mensalão scandal). This approval rating was the worst since Feb./08 (66.8%). Moreover, the spread (between “Approve” and “Disapprove”) declined precipitously since Jan./09 (+71.8) to +56.3 in March 2009. However – in May/09, the positive evaluation of the Lula Presidency increased by 5.3 p.p. to 81.5% -- close to the “peak” achieved in Jan./09. Another “oscillation” in Sept./09 ⇒ Lula’s approval rating as president “slid” back down (by nearly 5 points) to the level of March 2009, when the economic crisis had impacted Brazil. Detail: In Sept./01, in the 7th year of his government, Fernando H. Cardoso’s approval rating as President was 34.5%.

Evaluation of Lula as President
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Nov. Feb. Aug. April June Feb. Dec. Jan. Mar. May Sept.
Approve 46.7% 53.3% 59.3% 63.7% 64.2% 66.8% 80.3% 84.0% 76.2% 81.5% 76.8%
Disapprove 44.2% 38.0% 32.5% 28.2% 29.8% 28.6% 15.2% 12.2% 19.9% 15.7% 18.7%
Don’t Know 9.1% 8.7% 8.2% 8.2% 6.3% 4.6% 4.6% 3.8% 3.9% 2.9% 4.6%
“App. – Dis.” +2.5 +15.3 +26.8 +35.5 +34.4 +38.2 +65.1 +71.8 +56.3 +65.8 +58.1

What are the causes of this “inconsistency”? Apparently, Lula’s very aggressive public positions regarding the crisis – that it was caused by the “greedy” US banks and that Brazil was well-prepared to withstand the impacts of this crisis [“just a ripple for Brazil”] – seem to have struck a “positive” public nerve in January. Also, in Dec./08 and Jan.09 the government adopted several new policy decisions to inject large amounts of funds into the economy plus the Copom decision to reduce the Selic rate. However, since the January Sensus poll no “new” high impact public policies were forthcoming and new [bad] unemployment data for January and even worst GDP data for 4th Q/2008 appeared.

Thus, as might be expected, in March the evaluation of the Lula government suffered a worse decline that the evaluation of “Lula as President” ⇒ -10.1 points. Lula was down by -7.8 points. Again, this was the worst evaluation since Feb./08. The January-March spreads were down (worse) by -12.7 points versus a -15.5 point decline in the spreads Lula’s personal performance rating. Perhaps the difference (larger decline in Lula’s spreads) might be due to the fact that response options for the “Lula government” include a “regular” category.

But – as in the case of “Lula as President” seen above, the decline in the evaluation of the “Lula Government” observed in March was also reversed in May ⇒ to 69.8%, slightly below the “high water mark” observed in Jan./09 (72.5%). Again, In Sept./09, both the evaluations of Lula as President and of the Lula Government declined in Sept/09 – but not as much as Jan.⇒March.

Detail: In Sept./ 2001, in the 7th year of FHC’s term, the approval rating for the Cardoso government was 21.7%.

Evaluation of Lula Government
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Nov. Feb. Aug. April June Feb. Dec. Jan. Mar. May Sept.
Positive 31.1% 37.5% 43.6% 49.5% 47.5% 52.7% 71.1% 72.5% 62.4% 69.8% 65.4%
Regular 37.6% 40.0% 39.5% 34.3% 36.5% 32.5% 21.6% 21.7% 29.1% 23.9% 26.6%
Negative 29.0% 21.4% 15.6% 14.6% 14.0% 13.7% 6.4% 5.0% 7.6% 5.8% 7.2%
DK/NR 2.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 2.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8%
“Pos. -Neg.” +2.1 +16.1 +28.0 +34.9 +33.5 +39.0 +64.7 +67.5 +54.8 +64.0 +58.2

Presidential poll ⇒ 2010
Presidential coattails -- The Sept. 2009 poll repeated the Lula coattails question from the Jan./09 and March/09 polls ⇒ Would you vote for the candidate supported by Lula?

Vote for Lula’s Candidate? Jan. March Sept.
“The only one I’d vote for” 15.6% 21.5% 20.8%
“I might vote for Lula’s cand.” 28.9% 29.6% 31.4%
“No, not for that candidate” 18.4% 20.3% 20.2%
“I’d have to know the cand.” 34.0% 25.9% 24.6%
DK/NR 2.3% 3.9% 3.1%

There was a considerable increase in the first alternative, 15.6%⇒21.5% between January and March when Lula formally assumed” Dilma Rousseff as “his” candidate and a slight increase in the third [negative] option, 19.4% ⇒20.3% -- but in the Sept./09 poll both responses were essentially the same as in March/09, perhaps indicating that a limit to Lula’s “coattails” has been reached. The Brazilian press called attention to the proportion of voters who “would” or “might” vote for Lula’s candidate ⇒ 51.1% in March 2009, up 6.6 p.p. since the Jan./09 poll. However – six months later, in Sept./09 this indicator had reached 52.2% -- an increase of only 1.1 points – another indication of the “coattails plateau” hypothesis. Stay tuned for the next poll – probably in Dec./09!!! (This question was not repeated in the May poll.)

First Round Simulations -- As in March, the May Sensus poll ran 4 first round simulations with the pre-candidates who had “visibility” in January and March 2009. The Sept./09 poll ran 8 first round simulations – that included Sen. Marina Silva (PV) and Dep. Antônio Palocci (as the PT’s “Plan B”. In the first four simulations – José Serra does better than Aécio Neves as a PSDB pre-candidate, while Neves “declines” in simulations 2 and 4. Dilma Rousseff runs stronger than Ciro Gomes against both Serra and Neves.

Between the March and May polls: Serra declined 2.9 points against Dilma but gained 1.1 points against Gomes; Dilma increased 7.2 points against Serra and 7.9 points against Neves; and Gomes declined 0.6 points against Serra but gained 0.9 points against Neves. Heloisa Helena declined slightly against Serra but “advanced” in the other three simulations. As Lula’s in pectore candidate, Dilma Rousseff is steadily improving, especially against Aécio Neves where she surpassed 25% in May and broke the 20% plateau against Serra – in spite of Pres. Lula declining slightly in his approval ratings in March.

However – the Sept./09 Sensus poll that ALL candidates declined with the addition of Marina Silva (PV) to these simulations. In Simulation 1, Serra is down by 0.9 points, Dilma declined 4.5 points and Heloisa Helena was down by 1.0 point ⇒ reinforcing the theory that Marina Silva would take more votes (preferences) away from Dilma than Serra. The same tendency is present in Simulation 2, where Aécio Neves loses 2 points (double Serra’s loss), Dilma is down by 4.5 points, but Heloisa Helena loses 4.8 points ⇒ Marina Silva takes preferences away from both Dilma Rousseff and Heloisa Helena.

In Simulations 3 and 4 (with Ciro Gomes), Serra loses 3.7 points with Gomes down 5.6 points and Heloisa Helena down 2.8 points ⇒ Gomes suffers losses similar to Dilma, and Heloisa Helena losses increase some what. In the Aécio Simulation (4), the MG governor loses 1.7 points, while Gomes loses 8.1 points and Heloisa Helena loses 5.8 points. Aécio is impacted less than Serra by the addition of Marina Silva in these two simulations, while Gomes’s losses are similar to Dilma’s (in Simulations 1 and 2).

Simulation 1 Simulation 2 Simulation 3 .
Pre-Candidate Mar. May Sept. Mar. May Sept. Mar. May
J. Serra (PSDB) 45.7% 40.4% 39.5% - - - - - - 43.1% 44.2% 40.5%
A. Neves (PSDB) - - - - - - 22.0% 18.8% 16.8% - - - - - -
D. Rousseff (PT) 16.3% 23.5% 19.0% 19.9% 27.8% 23.3% - - - - - -
A. Palocci - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
C. Gomes (PSB) - - - - - - - - - - - - 14.9% 14.3% 8.7%
H. Helena (PSoL) 11.0% 10.7% 9.7% 17.4% 18.3% 13.5% 12.8% 13.5% 10.7%
M. Silva (PV) - - - - 4.8% - - - - 8.1% - - - - 7.1%
Blank/Null/DK/NR 27.0% 25.6% 27.2% 40.8% 35.3% 38.5% 29.4% 28.2% 33.1%

Simulation 4 Sim-5 Sim-6 Sim-7 Sim-8
Pre-Candidate Mar. May Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept.
J. Serra (PSDB) - - - - - - 42.2% - - 40.1% - -
A. Neves (PSDB) 21.2% 19.3% 17.6% - - 18.0% - - 19.5%
D. Rousseff (PT) - - - - - - - - - - 19.9% 25.6%
A. Palocci (PT) - - - - - - 7.0% 8.5% - - - -
C. Gomes (PSB) 19.2% 20.1% 12.0% - - - - - - - -
H. Helena (PSoL) 19.0% 22.4% 16.6% 10.8% 18.0% - - - -
M. Silva (PV) - - - - 9.3% 7.4% 9.8% 9.5% 11.2%
Blank/Null/DK/NR 40.7% 38.2% 45.2% 32.8% 45.9% 40.5% 43.9%

When Dep. Antônio Palocci is added to Simulations 5 and 6 (replacing Dilma as the PT’s “Plan B”), he polls slightly less that Marina Silva – but the “difference” between Dilma and Palocci seems to accrue more preferences to Heloisa Helena than to Serra or Aécio. The best performance by Sen. Marina Silva (PV) is in Simulation 8 – against Aécio Neves (PSDB) and Dilma Rousseff (PT).

Rejection rates – “I would never vote for him/her”
Pre-Candidate May Sept.
J. Serra (PSDB) 24.6% 29.1%
A. Neves (PSDB) 18.5% 26.3%
D. Rousseff (PT) 23.3% 37.6%
A. Palocci (PT) - - 45.8%
C. Gomes (PSB) 29.3% 39.9%
H. Helena (PSoL) - - 43.0%
M. Silva (PV) - - 33.3%

Among the four candidates included in the May/09 poll, ALL saw their rejection rates increase in Sept./09 (Heloisa Helena was not included in this simulation in May/09.). Aécio Neves continues to have the lowest rejection rate in this group (26.3%) followed by José Serra (29.1%). Ciro Gomes (39.9%) and Dilma Rousseff (37.6%) saw their rejection rates increase considerably. In the Sept./09 poll, Sensus included Heloisa Helena, Marina Silva and Antônio Palocci. The former Finance Minister has the highest rejection rate of all seven pre-candidates (45.8%), followed by Heloisa Helena (43.0%), and Marina Silva (33.3%).

“Coattails” - Would you vote for the candidate supported by Pres. Lula?
This so-called “coattails” or “vote transfer” question was simulated in the polls conducted in January, March and September 2009 ⇒ whether Lula’s great popularity (approval ratings in the polls) could be transferred to the candidate of his choice. In 2009, supposedly this candidate is Dilma Rousseff.

Response Jan. March Sept.
“The only one I’d vote for” 15.6% 21.5% 20.8%
“I might vote for Lula’s cand.” 28.9% 28.6% 31.4%
“No, not for that candidate” 18.4% 20.3% 20.2%
“I’d have to know the cand.” 34.0% 25.9% 24.6%
DK/NR 2.3% 3.9% 3.1%

According to these three polls, Lula’s ability to “transfer” his popularity to support of “his” chosen candidate has reached a “plateau” in Sept./09. While those responding “Yes, that’s the only candidate I would vote for” declined slightly between March and Sept. – 21.5%⇒20.8%; those responding, “No, I would not vote for the candidate supported by Lula” also decreased very slightly – 20.3%⇒20.2%. A majority responded “perhaps” – “I might vote for Lula’s candidate” (31.4%) or “I have to know who that candidate is (that Lula supports)” (24.6%).

This reinforces Lula’s possible strategy of taking a leave of absence from the Presidency in July-Sept. 2010 to campaign intensely with Dilma Rousseff (if she becomes the PT’s candidate). Detail: If for what ever reason Vice-President José Alencar (PRB-MG) were not able to substitute for Lula in mid-2010, this task would fall the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Dep. Michel Temer (PMDB-SP). Because Temer probably would be a candidate for reelection or for the Vice-Presidency in 2010, he would not be able to substitute for Lula and this task would fall to the President of the Senate, Sen. José Sarney (PMDB-AP).

⇒ Want more?? Reportedly, the PMDB in Brasília is circulating a recent survey conducted by Ibope that shows Dilma Rousseff declining 18%⇒13%. This result, attributed to Ibope, shows – Serra (42%), Ciro (14%), Dilma (13%), Heloisa Helena (7%), and Marina Silva (3%).

Second Round Simulations
In its Sept./09 poll, Sensus ran six simulations, four of which were continuations from January and May 2009. Simulations 5 and 6 include Dep. Antônio Palocci as the PT’s possible “Plan B” candidate.

In Simulations 1 and 4, José Serra remains more or less constant in his performance against Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Ciro Gomes (PSB) between May and September 2009.

In the Aécio vs. Dilma confrontation (Simulation 2), the MG governor is stable May⇒Sept., but Dilma loses votes to “Undecided”. In the Aécio vs. Gomes confrontation (Simulation 3), both candidates lose about the same proportions of votes to “undecided”.

Simulation 1 Simulation 2 Simulation 3 .
Pre-Candidate Mar. May Sept. Mar. May Sept. Mar. May Sept.
J. Serra (PSDB) 53.5% 49.7% 49.9% - - - - - - - - - - - -
A. Neves (PSDB) - - - - - - 28.3% 25.9% 26.0% 26.8% 27.9% 24.2%
D. Rousseff (PT) 21.3% 28.7% 25.0% 29.1% 39.4% 35.8% - - - - - -
A. Palocci (PT) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
C. Gomes (PSB) - - - - - - - - - - - - 31.2% 34.1% 30.1%
Blank/Null/DK/NR 25.3% 21.7% 25.2% 42.7% 34.8% 38.3% 42.2% 38.0% 45.8%

Simulation 4 Sim-5 Sim-6
Pre-Candidate Mar. May Sept. Sept. Sept.
J. Serra (PSDB) 49.9% 51.8% 51.5% 54.8% - -
A. Neves (PSDB) - - - - - - - - 31.4%
D. Rousseff (PT) - - - - - - - - - -
A. Palocci (PT) - - - - - - 11.3% 17.5%
C. Gomes (PSB) 20.3% 19.9% 16.7% - - - -
Blank/Null/DK/NR 29.9% 28.4% 31.9% 44.1% 51.2%

In ALL simulations, the voters marking Blank, Null, DK or NR were less in March than in January – but more frequent in Simulations 2 and 3 when the PSDB candidate was Neves. However, this “uncertain” response increased in Sept./09 to levels higher than in Jan./09. This reflects the uncertainty (or perplexity) of voters with the “reshuffling” of the “succession deck of cards” in August – with the possible entry of Marina Silva and Antônio Palocci, plus doubts as to whether Heloisa Helena will continue as a pre-candidate or whether the PSoL will seal a coalition with the PV in support of Marina Silva.

Conclusions:
1) While Lula’s popularity rating took a 10-point dive – he still has a relatively high approval rating.
2) Dilma has now more or less overtaken Gov. Aécio Neves in this poll, but appears to have reached a “plateau” in Sept./09.
3) As in the previous Datafolha and Ibope polls, Gov. Serra continues to enjoy a large lead in all scenarios.
4) Dep. Ciro Gomes has an improved, stronger showing, more or less equal to that of Dilma in some scenarios in the May/09 poll – but declined considerably in the Sept./09 poll.